With the presidential election scheduled for the February 2019, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is hoping to retain the seat with President Muhammadu Buhari re-elected for a second term.
That is the minimum expectation of the APC. In 2015, the party pulled the rug off the feet of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which had as at that time governed Nigeria for about 16 years.
The victory of the APC and Buhari in 2015 was a landmark one with almost an outright obliteration of the PDP. The APC took commanding position, not only at the presidency, but also at the National Assembly, governorship, majority of state assemblies across the country, to the extent that within just two weeks, the PDP, which prided itself as the largest political party before the 2015 elections, became a minority party to the shock of most Nigerians.
Ordinarily, we would have expected the APC, having achieved what was considered impossible previously, to be humble in victory and manage its success.
But going into the 2019 elections, it appears that the APC learnt nothing from the fate of the PDP. In the run-up to the 2015 elections, the PDP, led by former President Goodluck Jonathan, was embroiled in all manners of internal squabble over the control of the party.
The battle was so intense that concerned party members and political observers warned that the PDP was on the verge of self-destruction. They also warned that the consequence of Jonathan insisting to run again, despite a known gentleman agreement that he would run for only one term after serving out the tenure of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua would be grave.
But the PDP was so deeply filled with self-confidence of infallibility that nobody paid heed to the voices of reason. Thus, in just one day, five governors of the PDP, left the party with other members of the party, including now Senate President Bukola Saraki.
That was after the current Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, then the Speaker of the House of Representatives, left the party and joined the APC.
Many top party chiefs also left. They formed what became to be known as the new PDP (nPDP) bloc then. We have no doubt that their exit was the catalyst that ensured the defeat of Jonathan and the PDP. Three years later, the same problem of the nPDP has cropped up in the APC.
The same dramatis personae are at the centre of the crisis rocking the APC now. We note that discussions are ongoing between the nPDP and the leaders of the APC towards the resolution of the grievances of the bloc within the party.
At least, the nPDP members have met with the National Working Committee (NWC) of the APC and the Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo.
But it is in doubt if the anger of the nPDP could be arrested by the leadership of the APC currently. That is because one of the key grouses of the nPDP is their alleged exclusion from the mainstream of the APC. Another is the continued prosecution of Saraki by the APC government in which he is the Number 3 man.
We believe that the signs in the APC are not good. The signs are pointing in the direction the PDP went before it was de-robed by the APC. We dare to ask: What happened to the reconciliation committee set up by Buhari, headed by the National Leader of the party, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu? The committee has gone quiet or perhaps dead.
The ward, local and state congresses of the party across the country have also opened another lengthy chapter of discord and crises within the party. From Imo to Rivers, Cross River to Lagos; Benue to Adamawa and so many other states, there are parallel congresses held by different party men. The reality today is that the APC is not only fighting with the resurgent PDP, but also internal strife and as usual the vociferous voices of different power brokers led by former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
We can hazard a guess that the circumstances that consumed the PDP are not far from what is threatening the APC now. All the ingredients that were used to cook PDP’s downfall are also popping up now with the APC.
But beyond the internal strife and Obasanjo coalition factor now, there is also insecurity in the form of Boko Haram and the mass killings all over the country. There are also disgruntled APC members, who pose the greatest risk to the party itself.
We are, therefore, of the view that the APC needs to move fast to resolve its plethora of crises, especially with its National Convention coming up this month.
We recall that Jonathan’s problem became more public the day the nPDP members walked out of the convention of the PDP in Abuja. The scenario is not different now.
The nPDP members, who are currently at loggerheads with the APC, can also do same at the APC convention. That is why we believe that the APC as a party needs to wake up now or risk being a former ruling party like the PDP.
